Can We Trust the Polls?

During the 2022 midterm elections in the USA, I started to question if any of us should rely upon political polls. If you take samples of the population and ask them a question, like, “Who do you want to win?” you might get one response. If you ask, “Who are you voting for, Conservatives or Liberals?” you might get another. As several commentators in the American media are saying, their recent polls are national ones, not state ones, so they don’t show, for example, who might win during the primary selection process. And because the Donald seems to have (at minimum) a 30 point lead over his nearest GOP rival (Ron Desanctimonious), it feels like the effects of Trump’s criminal cases are null and void. But are they really?

The voting public are a fickle bunch: even though they might espouse the idea of supporting one political opponent over another, the underlying reason for their tactical vote may be tied to whatever social issue is on their personal agenda. So, we mustn’t count the chickens before they hatch!